Forecasting Drought: In Parched Marathwada Villages, Women Are Building Early Warning Systems
A women’s collective has collated a set of traditional indicators for an impending drought. It not only helps them reorganise farming practices but also prepare families for a crisis now intensified by climate change
By mid-April, Dharashiv district (formerly Osmanabad) in Marathwada looks almost like a desert. Trees appear only sporadically along the roads, barren and scorched lands stretch out endlessly under the blazing sun, and the heat is so intense it scorches the body. Drought here is visible.
Since the very severe drought of 2015, which set off a cyclic crisis that has yet to end, the situation has worsened. It has claimed the lives of thousands of farmers and pushed entire families to migrate. In 2016, the water scarcity was so severe that water had to be transported by train from Mumbai to Marathwada. The cycle of droughts has been vicious.
But it is the women who bear the heaviest burden of the crisis: managing drinking and household water, running households on reduced income, ensuring food security for the family, and handling the health impacts of the drought — all these responsibilities fall primarily on women.
Now, 10 women from Dharashiv district of Marathwada have come together to research an early warning system for droughts based on age-old local beliefs about an impending drought. The team consisting of women from villages in Tuljapur, Lohara, and Dharashiv talukas collect data using indigenous methods traditionally used by the people of the region. Their intent is to not just predict a drought but also develop climate-resilient strategies to tackle it.
Some of these beliefs have a firmer foundation in logic, others less so. Here are some of these traditional indicators: if birds build their nests at lower heights on trees, the drought is in the offing. The same goes for rodents storing grains in their burrows. The women gathered information on such indigenous indicators, analysed them, and conducted group discussions with other women in the villages to plan strategies to deal with drought in both farming practices and their daily lives. The team is now spreading these solutions through self-help group meetings and other means.
Shailaja Bhosale, Rupali Dhekare, Sanjeevani Hajare, Kavita Popat Pawar, Pooja Chougule, Rohini Barve, Rajshree Mane, Usha Jadhav, Farzana Beg, and Jayshree Mali are are all associated with Swayam Shikshan Prayog (SSP), an organisation that has been guiding women on how how to practice profitable, low-cost farming. They themselves also engage in low-cost farming, managing to generate the best revenue possible in a drought-prone area.
The team that has been advocating a climate-resilient farming model for the last seven to eight years. One of its tools is the early warning system for droughts.
Small Holdings, No Profits
We met women farmers from the villages of Chilwadi and Devshinga in Dharashiv. With few exceptions, they are all small landholders, with one to five acres of land. But as is often the case, the land is in the name of their husbands or families.
The main crops women here cultivate are soybean, chickpeas, pigeon peas, black gram, green gram, and sorghum. Of these, soybean is a major cash crop in Marathwada and this year, the central government announced a minimum support price of Rs 4,500 per quintal (100 kg) for it. But, farmers told us they usually receive lower prices at actual sale.
Rainfall is also a huge factor – if it fails, farms have to re-sow, and if it is unseasonal, crops ready for harvest are destroyed.
“In soybean farming, we make no profit; we only incur losses. Even when crops are abundant, the government doesn’t offer fair prices. Then the produce has to be stored at home. Five to six years ago, soybean fetched Rs. 7,000 to Rs. 7,500 (per quintal) but now, despite increased costs of fertilisers and seeds and the added GST burden, the crop prices haven’t risen. We cannot survive without loans,” said Komal Wagh from Chilwadi village.
We held group discussions with more than 50 women from Chilwadi and Devshinga villages, and each woman had taken loans ranging from Rs. 50,000 to Rs. 2 lakh from banks and self-help groups.
“Drought means no fodder for the cattle and that means very little milk which in turn means low fat content and low price for it,” said Mangal Mali, who supports her family on three acres of land. “Lack of fodder also affects chickens and goats, reducing their market value. We then have to borrow money for food, children’s education, and reinvestment in the next farming season. And this debt never truly gets repaid.”
Most women take on goat or cattle rearing to supplement their sparse earnings. But these too are affected by the drought.
Nine out of 10 women we spoke to have to work as agricultural laborers. “But from March to June, there are no jobs in the fields. If drought strikes, even the irrigated farming is hit, leaving us with no work. The employment guarantee scheme offers few jobs. We have some land, so we manage by taking loans, but those without land have no choice but to wander in search of food and water,” said Nirmala Bhosale.
‘We Focus On Survival’
When their produce remains unsold because of drought-driven poor prices, women farmers face severe financial constraints.
In Chilwadi, each household has its own borewell, and women use this water for personal needs. But excessive groundwater extraction, which intensified around 25 years ago, has severely depleted water levels. And those without their own borewells have to fetch water from public taps, sometimes walking a kilometer. The government’s Jal Jeevan Mission promise of ‘tap water in every home’ is absent here, we found.
In a crisis, women here meticulously plan their household expenses. “Where we would buy a kilo of something, we buy only half,” Geeta Chavan from Mutturwadi said. “We reduce spending on children’s snacks, avoid buying new clothes or luxury items, and don’t celebrate festivals grandly. We focus solely on survival.”
To reduce expenses on vegetables, women use edible wild greens like barbada, tandulja, and wagati. During droughts, people literally survive on papad, kurdaya (dried food items), and sandge (dried vegetable dumplings) readied in summer months. When there is no other food available, they boil the vermicelli they made earlier and mix it with sugar for children. When nothing else is available, a meal is often kurdaya sautéed with chili powder, salt, and onions.
The women of Devshinga village pointed out that droughts affect the health of women and children, especially pushing up malnutrition rates. Women often complain of fatigue; the rising heat and temperature cause dehydration, and poor water consumption often leads to the formation of kidney stones. Women also complained of eye irritation caused by heat.
Financial hardships also mean frequent quarrels and stress at home, especially between couples. Continuous crop failure, debt, and despair also push men into substance abuse. And domestic violence becomes more common.
Women And Resilience
It was after the catastrophic drought of 2015 that the SSP started studying farming practices in dry regions. It made three major observations: First, although 80% of agricultural laborers are women, they do not own land, which means they have no say in crop choices or sales decisions. Second, water-intensive cash crops like sugarcane were cultivated extensively, requiring eight to ten times more water than other crops. Third, thought drought, debt, and hardships pushed men to despair and suicide, women displayed resilience and stood strong.
The SSP concluded that if women, who have considerable managerial and multitasking skills, are given rights over farmland, they could bring sustainable change. With this thought, the SSP developed a model for women-led climate resilient farming.
Through dialogues with women farmers, the SSP worked on a strategy. Women would start cultivating a piece of land owned by their family and on this they would independently grow vegetables, greens, and pulses. By growing vegetables like eggplant, pumpkin, tomatoes, chilies, cluster beans, okra, drumsticks, spinach, and onions, and pulses like pigeon peas, black gram, green gram, and chickpeas, they saved about Rs 12,000–15,000 annually on vegetable and pulse expenses. This meant better nutrition and health for their families. The strategy worked – and its success persuaded families to trust women with more decision making rights in farming. Many allotted more land to women to cultivate.
The second part of this model focuses on low-cost or zero-budget farming. Women were encouraged to use vermicompost, farm waste, dried leaves, twigs, and biogas slurry as fertilisers instead of chemical alternatives. They were also guided to make homemade natural pesticides, like neem water, instead of buying chemical pesticides. Instead of purchasing seeds, they would borrow seeds from others and return them after harvesting their crops. Reducing input costs in this way helped increase profits. Additionally, women would help each other with farm tasks on a cooperative basis instead of hiring labour. Many women reported increased yield.
As BehanBox reported earlier, there is a drive across the country to engage women in the campaign to return to traditional farming practices which are labour intensive but are cost effective and less hazardous. The Maharashtra government and farming networks are promoting low-cost natural farming to reduce farmers’ dependence on expensive chemical inputs, improve soil health, and increase climate resilience. This approach helps small and marginal farmers cut costs, reduce debt, and achieve better yields sustainably, combating erratic rainfall and extreme weather.
Using biogas also saved them money otherwise spent on LPG cylinders. It also reduces methane emissions and the slurry from biogas systems could be used as organic fertilisers. Around 7,000 women from different districts of Marathwada started using biogas systems, we were told by Tabassum, an activist who led the initiative of building early warning systems.
In Dharashiv district, some women started growing maize using hydroponic farming techniques — growing crops without soil and with minimal water. By using as little as 20 liters of water a day, they were able to produce abundant green fodder for their livestock.
The third part of the model focused on women’s participation in decisions on the sale of farm produce, ensuring food security for their families. Anticipating droughts, women were encouraged to store a year’s worth of grains for their families and only sell the surplus. Similarly, growing vegetables in kitchen gardens — which could survive on wastewater even during droughts — was encouraged. They were also trained to make and store traditional preserved foods like papads, sandge, and kurdaya during summer. They learned to dry and store green leafy vegetables like chickpea leaves, fenugreek, and cluster beans, ensuring access to nutritious food even during droughts.
Forewarned, Forearmed
However, women still felt the need for early warning information about droughts. Currently, the government officially declares droughts around September-October, based on average rainfall and crop damage assessments. Based on the extent of crop loss — less than 30% (no drought), 30%-50% (moderate drought), or more than 50% (severe drought) — government relief packages, fodder camps, loan waivers, and other schemes are announced. But all of this happens only after the drought has already struck.
If women farmers could get advance warning of an impending drought three to four months earlier, they could adjust crop patterns to grow low-water-requirement crops, arrange food supplies for the whole year, manage their finances better, grow more vegetables in kitchen gardens, plan for their children’s education, consider other livelihood options, and take better care of their and their families’ health. Thus, early warning would help achieve two major goals: maintaining food security and ensuring good health.
Recognising this, the SSP began working to improve drought early warning systems.
Messages about the weather reach women through district agriculture center SMSes, WhatsApp groups created by agricultural universities, mobile weather apps, radio, television news, and YouTube channels like that of Panjabrao Dakh. Women still wanted an early warning system that would provide more accurate, women-focused information to help them better prepare for climate uncertainties.
Banking On Convention
Ten women from Dharashiv were first taught about various aspects of climate change, to what extent drought is a natural versus a man-made crisis, and how it impacts farming and lives. They then began working on this with SSP last year.
The warning system had inputs from the elderly in the village and experienced farmers who still have strong memories about how drought patterns could be predicted by observing local nature. This information was classified, neatly written on large card papers, and organised into a system. The SSP also tried to understand the logic behind each method.
- If the tamarind and jujube trees bear fewer fruits in summer, it indicates a sparse monsoon.
- If birds start building their nests lower on trees, it signals a drought. When heavy rains are expected, birds build their nests higher to protect their young.
- If rats are seen storing wheat and sorghum in their burrows, it’s a sign that drought is imminent. Rats start stockpiling food early to prepare for food scarcity during drought.
- If the lapwing bird (titavi) is seen pecking the ground, it is a sign that the monsoon will be poor.
- If the pavasha bird (common hawk cuckoo) is not seen or heard in June, it suggests delayed monsoons.
- If clouds do not scud across the sky in the month of Paush (December-January), it is another sign that the monsoon will bring poor rains.
Armed with around 10 more such indicators, the team began discussing drought preparedness measures with women farmers who themselves suggested solutions. This included the need to store fodder for animals and foodgrains for the household when a drought is impending.
These indicators are now being widely shared through WhatsApp by the women in the village along with tips on climate-resilient farming practices. SSP’s Tabassum talked of expanding this knowledge base to more women farmers, using platforms like self help groups, and local bodies. They are using this to prepare for this year’s cropping season.
“If women have rights in agriculture, they become excellent planners and ensure food security. Hence, they must be given an important role in all farming and drought-related policy decisions”, said Ulka Mahajan of the National Food Security Campaign. She stressed the need for policy change. “ Food security must be the focus of climate change mitigation because the impact of climate change will affect the food security the most marginalised”, said Ulka.
[This story is part of a new series “Climate Leaders: Women in Local Climate Action”, a collaboration between Womanity and Behanbox.]
Read the first story here.
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